From there, it covers in parallel the rise of Ayatollah Khomeini and his allies across Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, and their rivals in the Arabian Peninsula, Israel and the West, as well as within the Shia strongholds themselves. Biden has also pledged to re-engage with the international community and close the distance President Trump put between America and Europe, NATO, the United Nations and other allies and institutions, most notably rejoining the Paris Climate Accords and either resurrecting the Iranian JCPOA nuclear deal or negotiating a new agreement along similar lines. These groups operate transnationally and have a major impact on the global security environment, from the streets of London to the Cape Flats of South Africa. (Bonus read – for more information read my article on this here). Kicking off 2021: A virtual book launch. Lesotho’s Prime Minister Tom Thabane was forced to resign after being embroiled in a scandal involving the murder of his ex-wife Lipolelo Thabane, who was shot dead in 2017. As we all know, there is no static model which can account for modern geopolitical trends. Find out more. Whilst already recommended above by John Scott, Kim Ghatta’s Black Wave is an absolute must-read on this issue. Geopolitics. Our picks for the best books to read in April 2021 include new releases by Helen Oyeyemi, Caroline Kepnes, and the late Anthony Bourdain. This development begins the process of crystallising the new fault lines in the Middle East, which centre around a conflict between Saudi Arabia, Israel, and its new allies on side, and Iran, Qatar, Turkey and their assorted proxies on the other. Find predictions, insights and analysis on global outlook, markets and geopolitics. This insurgency has now killed 20,000 and left over 7 million in need of humanitarian assistance. Over half of Egypt’s population are under 24; 43% of Afghanistan are under 15, and over half of Niger’s population are under 15. A vote of no confidence against President Cyril Ramaphosa has been postponed until 2021, with his political fate hanging in the balance, amid a weakening economy, rampant corruption allegations, and even electricity cuts. Elections in Burkina Faso took place despite instability, which meant that voter registration could not take place in 17% of the country, voting did not take place in 926 polling stations, disenfranchising nearly 600,000 voters, and nearly half of MPs felt they could not campaign in their own constituencies due to security concerns. By Francis P. Sempa. Top subscription boxes – right to your door, © 1996-2021, Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates. Resilience is a Competitive Necessity — Why the Security Landscape Has Changed Forever. In these turbulent times, we would be wise to heed the significance of Porter’s work—a widespread romanticised conviction about the nature of the liberal order is leading many of us astray to truly understanding the driving forces behind the novel challenges that we are facing in the world today.”, Eamon Driscoll – Russia and Commonwealth of Independent States Analyst, Armenia and Azerbaijan: Anatomy of a Rivalry – Laurence Broers, “In this year, which has seen fierce fighting between these two former Soviet republics where ancient enmities have been unleashed, Broers offers an excellent analysis of the situation on the ground and how both the Armenians and Azeris have reached this point, staring at each other in the disputed Karabakh region. Covering the relatively modern developments of Afghanistan and al-Qaeda, Ghost Wars highlights the sheer complexity and myriad of moving parts involved. It is one thing to hold that popular culture writes the global space but another to demonstrate the various ways by which this happens. Porter’s book seeks to expose the flaws of this spurious outlook, by shedding light upon the ruthless, non-consensual, world-ordering activities that have given rise to untold costly deficits. A … The military technology available to great powers such as the USA has forced state and non-state actors alike to explore sub-threshold methods of projecting power and pursuing their political objectives. However, there is accessible scholarship out there that will help analysts get to grips with the Covid-19 outbreak and its political implications. Popular Culture, Geopolitics and Identity Jason Dittmer and Daniel Bos Rowman & Littlefield, Second Edition, 2019. Consequently, his appointment was opposed by Iran and their proxies in Iraq, and Kataib Hezollah, a constituent militia of the PMF, accused al-Kadhimi of being responsible for the deaths of Soleimani and Muhandis. DOI link for Geopolitics. The inroads of Chinese firms, who comprise the majority of foreign firms responsible for building ports, roads, and railroads in Africa, has extended beyond strictly economics as a growing Chinese population in Africa increasingly become permanent residents in African countries; a cultural link that further strengthens China’s ability to exert soft power within the continent. The Resurgence of Central Asia: Islam or Nationalism? The Sahel is the site of a Western intervention against Islamist forces, which has been granted relatively light media coverage given the other major events of the year. Despite previously being unpopular due to the economic slowdown and political scandals, he has won plaudits for his Government’s effective response to the coronavirus outbreak. Domestic politics continues to be polarised, with movements such as Extinction Rebellion, Black Lives Matter, and the Gilet Jaunes dominating headlines and eliciting fervent opposition and outspoken support from different corners of society. The politics of identity and division will define many of the events of 2021 as they have shaped those of 2020. The author regularly draws comparisons between the current situation in India and the famed Gilded Age in the USA and wonders out loud how India’s own current Gilded Age will play out into the future. The group is so strong that it was recently reported to be able to raise larger revenues than the Mogadishu Government, and has carried out small arms attacks and suicide bombings against Government and civilian targets. Our contributors include Military officers, Geopolitical Intelligence analysts, Corporate Security professionals, Government officials, Academics and Journalists from around the globe. As well as BLM, we saw a continued, albeit more muted presence of Extinction Rebellion protests and anti-establishment demonstrations protesting Government policies, especially with respect to coronavirus lockdowns among others. This group is not only still politically persecuted, but also at great risk of genocide and ethnic cleansing. By Francis P. Sempa. At present the biggest geopolitical issue is likely to be the situation between the UK and Ireland and the status and treatment of Northern Ireland. Washington, United States About Blog The Brookings Institution is … The countries in this region are young and inherently full of optimism and hope, but still suffering the effects of a century of Russian domination. As support for Guaidó has waned, Maduro has begun to solidify his power-base, and an operation codenamed Gideon, carried out by Venezuelan dissidents and an American private military corporation called Silvercorp USA failed to remove him. The use of these signals a return to a new normal, away from state monopolies of armed force and back towards the historical trend of these actors wielding significant power. 2020 has proven to be a challenging yet exciting year for Encyclopedia Geopolitica, which celebrated its 4th birthday earlier this month. Hybrid warfare consists of using methods such as cyber operations, deception, dis/misinformation, diplomacy, lawfare, and economics to advance political goals and undermine those of hostile or rival powers. He posits that there should be no reason that an Army intelligence officer can not field a billet in the Air Force if he meets qualifications, or allowing commanders to offer incentives be it monetary, duty station to entice officers to positions or units that are not so desirable. “One of the most intellectually challenging and stimulating books I’ve read this year, Bobbitt’s chef-d’œuvre is certainly the most thought-provoking. So then, if the military is so good at producing talent why is it that it’s so bad at retaining them? Our 2020 Reading List noted that “unpredictable military operations” may be likely in the MENA region in the coming year. Russia, having been driven out of Afghanistan when it was the Soviet Union by the Mujahedeen has now found itself in a strange marriage of convenience with the Taliban, even offering bounties for each American soldier killed by the terrorist group. By Orson Porter. Location New York. Heavy pressure is being exerted on Joe Biden to ask him to end this conflict and alleviate the humanitarian disaster. As of the time of writing, peace talks have not yet produced an interim government and this issue will loom large in 2021. Even for experienced political and security analysts, the book is a valuable companion. In Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro’s legitimacy to rule has been in dispute since 2019, with most Western powers, including the US and EU recognising Juan Guaidó, and many Eastern powers, including Russia and China, recognising Maduro. Announcements. Whether this results in Assad retaking control of the area, allowing Turkey to operate its ‘buffer zone’ to frustrate Kurdish attempts at building government institutions, or comes to an accommodation with Rojava in the mould of Saddam Hussein’s truce with the Iraqi Kurds in return for semi-autonomy, remains to be seen. Despite this, AMLO has proposed a constitutionally questionable referendum on his presidency half way through his term, to coincide with legislative elections next year. Whether we’re talking about the U.S.-China trade war or Brexit or climate change or the COVID-19 pandemic, the events of 2020 have highlighted that it’s impossible to separate geopolitical and political risks from other hazards in a typical enterprise risk management (ERM) framework. Defenses Against Pandemics and Biological Weapons, War From the Ground Up: Twenty-First Century Combat as Politics, War in 140 Characters: How Social Media Is Reshaping Conflict in the Twenty-First Century, The New Rules of War: How America Can Win–Against Russia, China, and Other Threats, Goliath: Why the West Doesn’t Win Wars. Business Survival in a Pandemic Age. They produce extremely grisly and unpleasant symptoms which lead to a distressing and painful death. This year, we at Encyclopedia Geopolitica have compiled a bumper list of books to help you understand the trends and forces that have driven the turbulent events of this year and will precipitate whatever awaits us in 2021. Al-Shabaab the well-known al Qaeda affiliate in Somalia remains a threat, after an American CIA agent was killed during an operation against a suspected bomb maker. The human rights situation in Egypt has declined markedly, with Amnesty International condemning what they describe as an ‘execution spree’, possibly in response to a failed breakout attempt from Cairo’s Tora prison, and potentially also in the knowledge that a President Biden will be far less tolerant of political repression than President Trump has been. Nevertheless, the analysis is kept separate to the subject matters themselves, to create an atmosphere one would feel in the presence of a highly dangerous museum exhibit. Turkey’s intervention effectively blunted Haftar’s seemingly inexorable advance, and a permanent ceasefire was signed in October, with a requirement for all foreign fighters to withdraw from Libya within three months and a joint police force to patrol disputed areas. Other armed groups have moved into areas where the FARC has stood down and have threatened and killed one another as well as human rights defenders. China's Western Horizon: Beijing and the New Geopolitics of Eurasia [Markey, Daniel, Heitsch, Paul] on Amazon.com. Along with fleeing Iranians and Syrians, Yemenis make up a large number of refugees spilling into countries across the region and beyond, which is having a deep impact on domestic and foreign politics. Geopolitics book. As well as fighting for political power and to air grievances about the Bogotá Government’s policies, these groups fight for control of coca fields, which provide the primary ingredient for cocaine. I have studied a lot of mid 20th Century LATAM political violence, but South East Asian targeted killings moving to the New World was something that was surprising, enlightening, and shocking that such atrocities could be actively supported by countries that were ostensibly pushing for “freedom.””, Edwin Tran – Geopolitics and Levantine Affairs Analyst, The Fall of the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East – Eugene Rogan, “To understand the present, one must understand the past. This is a broad, nebulous, and still-developing concept and, as such, the following list of recommended reading is far from exhaustive, but it will provide a solid foundation: Non-state actors continue to increase their power, influence, and impact on global affairs. The Balochistan Republic Army (BRA), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Balochistan Republican Guard (BRG) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) joined forces in late 2019 under the banner of a singular organisation, known as Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), which translates into English as Baloch National Freedom Movement. Genetic editing technology is on the one hand fraught with ethical and philosophical problems, but on the other has the potential to revolutionise agriculture, cure disease, and endow mankind with physical powers heretofore the province of science fiction. His two most recent books covered the campaign to abolish cash. With more populations than ever choosing to live litorally – that is, by the coast, we have never been more at the mercy of the whims of the oceans. Belarus, often referred to as Europe’s last dictatorship, has been shaken by public anger and protests against incumbent President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who is increasingly having to become a vassal of Moscow in order to cling to power. International organised criminal syndicates will continue to drive developments across the world from Mexican drug cartels, to Romanian human trafficking rings, to Russian arms dealers. One criticism that can be leveled at Mahbubani’s analysis is that he seems more cutting when discussing the US’ weaknesses and a little too ready to omit or skim over some of China’s problems, favouring a more complimentary narrative to CCP rule than many will agree with (these people should probably pay attention to chapter 7). Geopolitics . The long frozen conflict in Western Sahara, between the Kingdom of Morocco and the self-declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), led by the Polisario Front has thawed, now that SADR President Brahim Ghali announced the end of the 29-year ceasefire. In this book, Bevins covers a period largely ignored in western textbooks, and shows a brutal anti-communist purge in Indonesia as the blue print for the US’s secretive campaign through Latin America, and a cadre of CIA officers that were present for both. Written in 2018, this book takes a deep dive into the industrialization and resulting wealth inequality happening in India. Externally, Russia’s foreign policy continues to be aggressive and expeditionary. The frequent factual errors are put right. From the Gold War to the 21st Century. Coronavirus is a word many of us had never heard of and few of us had ever used prior to 2020, but none of us will ever forget. Geopolitics. What would you like to learn or read about on Cryopolitics? Chief among these groups are the National Liberation Army (ELN), a Marxist left-wing militia, with whom the Government has refused to negotiate until they release all hostages they are currently holding and promise to cease further attacks and kidnappings. These will fluctuate with characteristic familiarity, creating instability, tensions and strife, but not leading to military conflict – barring an unforeseen accident. Rogan’s work is incredibly detailed, vividly written, and captivating. How this is a real game-changing moment cannot be emphasized enough; 21st century geopolitics will never be the same again. 12 p.m. – 1 p.m. Register here to join the webinar, or watch live on Watson's YouTube channel. Watch webcast. COVID-19: 5 picture books to help you talk to your children about death. He cites studies as well as a survey he conducted with graduates and alumni of the military academies of the US and interprets that data to show that the military is hemorrhaging the very people it has gone to great efforts to vet, train and field. The Kill Order: a prequel to the multi-million…. The Battle for Britain’s Soul: Bobbitt, Brexit, and the geopolitical reasons the UK left the EU, Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics, To Dare More Boldly: The Audacious Story of Political Risk, Political Risk: How Businesses and Organizations Can Anticipate Global Insecurity, 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century, Cocktails from Hell: Five Complex Wars Shaping the 21st Century, The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need To Know About Global Politics, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail–but Some Don’t, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Guns, Germs and Steel: A short history of everybody for the last 13,000 years, COVID-19 and World Order: The Future of Conflict, Competition, and Cooperation, The End of Epidemics: The Looming Threat to Humanity and How to Stop It, The Pandemic Information Gap: The Brutal Economics of COVID-19, Post-Pandemic: 12 Lessons in Crisis Management, Defending Against Biothreats: What We Can Learn from the Coronavirus Pandemic to Enhance U.S. Further, Kilcullen’s discussion of dragons examines the reappearance of great power competition, with states such as China, Iran, and Russia emerging to challenge the hegemony of the United States. Despite these and other shocking incidences of cartel violence, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has pledged to stick to his non-confrontational approach, reiterating his stance that previous ‘war on drugs’ strategies adopted by his predecessors had failed to curb violence. A ceasefire was brokered between the warring parties by the Russians, who have deployed a 2,000 strong peace-keeping detachment to enforce the terms. The UK has taken the decision to exclude Huawei from the future of its 5G project and there is an ongoing debate about China’s involvement in the British nuclear industry. In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro continues to be a divisive and polarising figure. It took 18 years after Shock and Awe unleashed on Iraq for the Hegemon to be mercilessly shocked and awed by a virtually simultaneous, diplomatic Russia-China one-two.