Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Jupiter Ingress into Pisces in 2021. Considering a notable reduction in ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine in late 2020, the summit could yield some progress in the peace talks. The Macroeconomic, Geopolitical, and Social Trends Defining Our World | Dambisa Moyo | February 2021 - YouTube. As the Biden-Harris administration takes stock of the security challenges ahead, several important geopolitical trends are on the horizon. resident Bashar al-Assad will seek to re-legitimise his leadership. These will be the first major electoral test for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its new leader since long-time prime minister Abe Shinzo left office in 2020. Companies should re-assess the willingness of the international community to re-engage with his government and any implications this could have on the extensive sanctions regime placed on doing business with Syria. But increase in connectivity comes with certain threats. With the UK officially no longer part of the EU, prepare to monitor future regulatory changes and disruption as the UK negotiates new trading terms with various international partners. If it flops, and the country’s health and economic emergency extends deep into 2021, Republican opposition will intensify and grow more rigid. The position of Boris Johnson is also threatened as he seems to move away from conservative party from Brexit policies. This also has the potential to inform its sovereign risk ratings as well as relations with China and other creditors like India and Japan. The 2021 Vision Book is the ultimate guide for business professionals. The geopolitical outlook in 2021. The elections will be a key test of his authority and his commitment to political reforms despite the challenges and will give potential investors an indication of whether Ethiopia can still live up to its huge investment potential. Global Mobility Today Global Mobility Trends Regional Mobility Trends. With President Joe Biden in office in the US, the prospects for its renewal are significantly improved. Although President Yoweri Museveni is likely to win the presidential elections – extending his 35-year rule – growing dissatisfaction with him and his National Resistance Movement is likely to prompt unrest and has significant implications for his eventual succession. EU have set goals to achieve net zero emission by 2050, china by 2060. Failure to hold them would be a significant backwards step for Somalia’s prospects. As well as … The first presidential and parliamentary elections since the 2019 protest wave will shape the country’s outlook for the following four years and beyond. Economic & Geopolitical Outlook 2021 Economic & Geopolitical Outlook 2021. The biggest impact that technology will have on geopolitics for 2021 (and beyond) will not primarily come from the technology itself, but rather from the system that surrounds it. April 7 – Reserve Bank of India makes its interest rate decision. Assess the impact of government and economic instability as fallout from COVID and Brexit dominate. A robust foreign policy is necessary to overthrow Trump’s “America First” projection retreat from international & multilateral institutions such as NATO. 2021 will be a year of interactions between the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery and fractured geopolitics. Three geopolitical themes shaping the post-COVID-19 world. These will be the fourth parliamentary elections for Israel in two years. Companies should plan for potential disruption in Beirut, including the possibility of localised violence. 2020 will likely bear witness to Washington’s continued retreat from multilateralism on a gradual but steady glide path toward moderate isolationism. Monitor social sentiment and plan for continued political and regulatory change in the next year. If held in early 2021, they will mark an important step towards improving political stability. Elections in Somalia have been repeatedly delayed and once again failed to take place in December 2020 amid disputes between central and regional governments. Beijing will be determined to avoid major problems or instability around this milestone. By. The Middle-East in 2021: 4 Important Trends in Regional Geopolitics. 2021 will be an uneven year. Leaders will set the tone for domestic policies for the rest of the year, and the NPC will approve a new Five-Year Plan for economic and social development in the 2021-25 period. We look ahead to America’s presidential inauguration, Germany’s & Iran’s new leaders, post Brexit UK & EU, and, of course, the world’s response, in business, politics, economics, climate change, and medicine, to the coronavirus pandemic. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of the December 2021 Total Solar Eclipse. But looking at its internal issues it seems that 2021 will be a tricky one for Europe. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. Poor Nations will try to domestically develop or diplomatically arrange the vaccine. This election cycle will coincide with the second anniversary of President Narendra Modi’s re-election and will serve as a mid-term referendum on his leadership. Prepare for operational disruption from potential widespread unrest, as well as increased reputational and sanctions risks in the event of a heavy-handed response by security forces, which would attract criticism from the US and Europe. In 2021, we expect global interconnectivity and the very architecture of the internet to come under significant stress – not just from increased usage, but from fundamental rifts in the world’s technology infrastructure. Key trends include regional economic downturns in most key markets apart from China, as the full impact of Covid’s cost hits, heightened use of key global summits to re-establish US influence, possibly leading to increased trade and global health policy tensions. April 6 – The US Energy Information Administration releases its monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will signal supply and demand trends in the US and global markets. Welcome to the world in 2021. Taiwan issue may again escalate and both countries will try to solve the problem non militarily and a cycle of sanctions will begin. There is a high potential for major protests and calls for fresh military offensives by Armenian forces to recapture lost territory. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 after a tumultuous year which saw both ’the worst of times and the best of times’ for the stock market, said analysts. Reshuffles are likely and political risk for factions that lose out will increase. Ukraine will work hard to secure a high-level Normandy Summit meeting with Russia, Germany and France to discuss resolving the war in the east. However, in mid of 2021 Iran is also having its own presidential elections and President Hassan Rouhani can’t run for a third term. The president faces more domestic issues than external. Companies should monitor monetary and fiscal policy and evaluate sovereign risks. Companies should assess and monitor how geopolitical relations with China may impact deals and financing in their sector of operation. The pandemic had brought the African IT sector a significant growth. The US-China rivalry will loom over global business in 2021. Companies should assess any potential implications for social stability, as well as for India’s relations with Bangladesh. The elections will decide Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor, with implications for EU unity as well as EU trade, environment and foreign policy. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead. Continued development of the dam will increase tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. The overall effect of viewing fragile states through a geopolitical lens is likely to erode limited progress has been made on fragile states' stability and responsive governance. On 20 Jan 2021 President Joe Biden occupied the Oval Office. Following a tumultuous 2020 for the post-Soviet region in which major crises emerged in several countries, simultaneous parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan and early presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan amid a COVID-induced economic slowdown could prompt unrest and instability, setting the tone for another year of upheaval. Failure to hold them would be a significant backwards step for Somalia’s prospects. Body. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Saturn-Uranus Square alignment in 2021. 4. The Perch Perspectives 2021 Forecast is divided into three distinct parts: macro trends, countries, and elections. These insights can better inform strategic decisions that include M&A, market entry and exit as well as other transactions. Geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate over the course of the next seven years. The continent has the youngest population due to which it should be the centre of the world. The post Brexit transition period is over and UK is fully outside of EU’s structures. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 after a tumultuous year which saw both 'the worst of times and the best of times' for the stock market, said analysts. Businesses should seek to understand alternative scenarios for security in the Korean peninsula and any security or business implications these might trigger. Apr 7, 2021 Crude Oil Prices Struggle After Dual Crises, but Long-term Bullish Potential Remains Apr 7, 2021 USD/CAD Technical Overview: Trying to Snap the Downtrend The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can be a “game-changer,” but a lot more have to be done to refine the policies in 2021. Overview. Around the election period, companies should assess and monitor potential risks from the geopolitical level (such as reputational or sanctions risks from US and other responses) and the local security level (with potential for protests, or disruption related to heightened security). 1 Fights over vaccines. President Xi Jinping appears to consider this an important opportunity to proclaim the CPC’s historical achievements and mission, and perhaps his own status and legacy. Biden Administration is also planning to re-join Paris agreement and participate in UN’s COP26 in Nov 2021. UK post-Brexit: The beginning after the end. Initially scheduled for early 2020, but postponed due to COVID-19, the NATO exercise will be the largest for US forces in 25 years, testing their capability to deploy large numbers of troops across the Atlantic. An inflection point is coming between business and climate change in 2021. The two Dutch think tanks stress that the time is now for Europe to adopt a more assertive geopolitical stance as a nascent world power, […] Companies should assess the impact of alternative electoral scenarios on regulatory and political risk. Following an unpopular constitutional referendum and questions over President Abdelmedjid Tebboune’s health, the anniversary could spark renewed protests. The opposition will likely capitalise on the current government’s dwindling popularity and increase its seats in both houses in Congress. With Morocco’s diplomacy dominating the headlines it is easy to overlook regional issues. For instance, how geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy play out in 2021 is likely to affect the global business environment for years to come. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Saturn Ingress into Aquarius in 2020. Every year in January, Eurasia Group, KPMG's Global Alliance partner, publishes its Top Risks report which forecasts key geopolitical risks for the year ahead. ... Options for investor migrants are likely to proliferate in 2021 in response to the growing demand, particularly in emerging markets. Africa’s market has advantage in 2021 and beyond because it is the continent least affected by Covid-19. Russia & China will also develop vaccine and fill the markets. With Brexit done and dusted, Covid-19 vaccine is on its way and predicted President in the Oval office, 2021 should by rights be an easier year for EU. The elections are expected to mobilise relatively large anti-government protests.